Sunday, February 4, 2007

Strategy + Business writes on One Billion New Automobiles
by Bill Jackson and Vikas Sehgal


Imagine how the world would be transformed if the number of people who owned cars doubled in a decade. In fact, as the rate of personal vehicle ownership soars in Asia, a new kind of global automotive manufacturing industry is emerging to capitalize on this new customer base. Automakers (and the financial markets and supply chains that support them) already know their world is going to change; the media are beginning to pay attention to fledgling motor vehicle companies such as Chery (in China) and Mahindra and Mahindra (M&M, in India). But few people realize the full implications. If the auto markets of developing nations evolve on a par with established markets by, say, 2020, that development could upend today’s prevailing notions of what a car costs, how it is produced, and how it is used.

The trends that will shape this future — from automobile production to environmental impact to changes in working patterns — are proceeding at different speeds. But they are all interrelated, and their impact will be cumulative. These trends include:

• Social Mobility

• Environmental Impact

• An Expanding Lower-End Auto Market.

• New Pressures on the Auto Industry.

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